The truth behind race-based crime statistics

A recent viral meme has been circulating, claiming to present homicide statistics based on race in the United States. However, a closer look reveals that these statistics are not entirely accurate. Let’s fact-check the claims and uncover the truth.

The claim: Significant race-based disparities in civilian and police homicide rates

The viral post suggests that there are significant disparities in homicide rates based on race, both in civilian and police homicides. However, these claims are misleading and do not reflect the reality of the situation.

According to the U.S. Department of Justice and the Federal Bureau of Investigation, most homicides in the United States are intraracial. The rates of white-on-white and Black-on-Black killings are similar, both in the long term and on an individual basis.

Between 1980-2008, data from the U.S. Department of Justice showed that 84% of white victims were killed by white offenders, while 93% of Black victims were killed by Black offenders.

In more recent years, the Federal Bureau of Investigation reported that in 2018, 81% of white victims were killed by white offenders, and 89% of Black victims were killed by Black offenders. In 2017, these figures were almost identical, at 80% for white victims and 88% for Black victims.

Contrary to the viral post, both white-on-white and Black-on-Black homicide rates tend to hover between 80% and 90% and remain within 10 percentage points of each other.

Rates of Black-on-white and white-on-Black homicide within 8 points

The viral post also suggests a large disparity in the rates of Black-on-white and white-on-Black homicide. However, statistics from the FBI in both 2018 and 2017 contradict these claims.

In 2018, 16% of white victims were killed by Black offenders, while 8% of Black victims were killed by white offenders. Similarly, in 2017, 16% of white victims were killed by Black offenders, while 9% of Black victims were killed by white offenders. Both years show a much smaller gap than the 79% alleged in the viral post, with the numbers remaining within eight percentage points.

Disproportionate rates of police killings of Black people

Although nationwide statistics on police killings are less readily available, multiple studies have found that police kill Black people at disproportionate rates.

A study published in the American Journal of Preventative Medicine in 2016 examined the use of lethal force by on-duty law enforcement from 2009 to 2012 in 17 states. The majority of victims were white people, but “black victims were over-represented (32.4%) relative to the U.S. population.” The fatality rate was 2.8 times higher among Black victims than white victims.

Another study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in 2019 found that Black men and women are killed by police at higher rates than their white counterparts. Black men are approximately 2.5 times more likely to be killed by police during their lifetime than white men, while Black women are about 1.4 times more likely to be killed by police than white women.

Both studies reveal that the claims from the viral post, stating that police kill white people at 3% and Black people at 1%, are false.

In conclusion: The truth behind the viral post

Based on our research, all six purported homicide statistics in the viral post are FALSE. The race-based disparities presented in the post are also false. In reality, rates of white-on-white and Black-on-Black homicides are similar, around 80% and 90%, respectively. Likewise, rates of Black-on-white and white-on-Black homicides remain within eight percentage points of each other, at around 16% and 8%. Additionally, police kill Black people at disproportionate and significantly higher rates than they kill their white counterparts.

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Sources:

• U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, November 2011, Homicide Trends in the United States, 1980-2008
• Federal Bureau of Investigations, Uniform Crime Reporting, Crime in the United States 2018, Expanded Homicide Data Table 6
• National Library of Medicine, American Journal of Preventative Medicine, November 2016, Deaths Due to Use of Lethal Force by Law Enforcement
• Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, August 2019, Risk of being killed by police use of force in the United States by age, race-ethnicity, and sex

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